May 2019 – Cheetah, Deliverables & reports
[D 5.2 Working paper on energy demand projections for buildings]
Working paper on energy demand projections for buildings
Authors: Andreas Müller, Sebastian Forthuber, Lukas Kranzl, Natalia Kowalska, Technische Universität Wien
Reviewed by: Barbara Schlomann, Fraunhofer ISI
This report, submitted as deliverable 5.2 of the CHEETAH project, outlines the scenarios which we developed in the course of the CHEETAH project, and reports the underlying assumptions and documents the results. The analysis presented in this report covers the energy consumption for space heating and domestic hot water preparation and is conducted using the Invert/EE-Lab model. With respect to technologies, we focus in this report on (a) smart thermostats, a technology that is covered by the survey and which has been implemented in the Invert/EE-Lab model within the CHEETAH project and (b) on the heating systems per energy carrier group and impact of energy savings triggered by building refurbishments.
The aim of this scenario-based analysis is to quantify the impact of household-specific importance of parameters influencing the decision, whether or not to invest in energy efficiency technologies. These parameters have been derived from a survey conducted in eight different European countries in work package 4 of this project and are documented in deliverable 4.4 as well as the Milestone 3 document. Furthermore, we are investigating the effect of additional restrictions and assumptions, which are part of the Invert/EE-Lab model, yet not covered by the survey.
Structure of the CHEETAH project
The presented work is embedded in the CHEETAH project, which aims to provide evidence-based insights in the decision-making process of households, related to energy efficiency measures and the underlying reasoning of decision makers. This is done on three levels:
- On the micro level, the project empirically analyses factors influencing individual decision-making and the response of households to different policy instruments based on demographically representative surveys, which are conducted in eight EU member states.
- On the meso level, the project analyses the impact of the households’ decision criteria and several different policy instruments on the diffusion of energy efficiency technologies. This is done using the modelling tools FORECAST for the appliance sector, Invert/EE-Lab for the heating and cooling sector and the EMLab-Consumer model, which covers both sectors. This analysis will be conducted for the eight EU member state countries covered by the survey, as well as the remaining 20 member state countries (FORECAST and Invert/EE-Lab only) based on clustering of countries into groups with similar starting bases and/or socio-economic population structure.
- On the macro level, the CHEETAH project will explore the macroeconomic effects of policy instruments addressing energy efficiency until 2030 on indicators such as GDP growth, employment and exports. For this analysis, we will build on the ASTRA model.