Mar 2020 – Cheetah, Deliverables & reports
[D5.3 Scientific working paper on energy demand projections for appliances]
Scientific working paper on energy demand projections for appliances
Tim Mandel, Heike Brugger, Antoine Durand, Fraunhofer ISI
Emile Chappin, Delft University of Technology
Vienna University of Technology
Energy efficiency policies in the EU are subject to ongoing critical assessment with regard to their energy saving effects, cost-effectiveness, and distributional effects. While long-term ex- ante evaluations of such policies are typically performed through energy-economy models, these approaches tend to neglect empirical data on heterogeneous consumer preferences towards technology adoption. Against this background, the objective of this project deliverable is to provide empirically substantiated projections for the long-term effects of major EU energy efficiency policies with regard to the adoption of energy-efficient appliances.
Focusing on white appliance technologies in the residential sector, we couple the results of representative discrete choice experiments (DCEs) carried out in the CHEETAH project with the bottom-up energy demand model FORECAST. The DCEs were carried out in a demographically representative survey across 18,000 households in eight EU member countries, investigating individuals' hypothetical purchase decisions in response to appliance attributes and energy efficiency policies – ranging from regulation (minimum performance standards), to information (labelling) and financial incentives (rebates). Households are clustered according to socioeconomic characteristics, including income levels, household size, and environmental awareness. Using statistical-econometric analysis, the findings from the DCEs were implemented into the FORECAST model to explore the evolution of residential energy demand for white appliances until 2030. Challenges related to the approach include (i) using empirical data from the DCEs across different appliance technologies in the model, and (ii) the projection of cross-sectional survey data to future years.
In a baseline scenario (Current Policy Scenario, CPS), our findings suggest a 21.9% reduction in final energy demand for white appliances in the EU between 2008 and 2030, highlighting the general effectiveness of the EU Ecodesign and labelling regulations currently in force. While more stringent Ecodesign requirements are projected to result in a 30.8% reduction between 2008 and 2030, our findings point out unwanted distributional effects for some countries and household groups in the case of stricter Ecodesign regulation. Under these circumstances, additional rebates for efficient appliances, disbursed to low-income households only, were considered. According to the modelling results, this policy package would increase savings to 31.2% by 2030, since the cost-effectiveness for those groups would be improved.
In order to benchmark the quantitative results from the FORECAST model, we performed a comparative assessment with the agent-based model EMLab-Consumer. For this purpose, input parameters for both models were harmonised to the extent possible. The comparative assessment reveals deviations between FORECAST and EMLab-Consumer in terms of market shares and the average energy consumption of refrigerators. These deviations can be attributed to differences in the properties of the two models, including the extent to which the range of purchase attributes from the DCEs are considered, and whether social interactions are taken into account. Overall, both models are considered to yield plausible results, providing robust insights into households' responses to energy efficiency policies and into long-term implications for energy demand.