ACTOR-RELATED SCENARIOS USE LESS ENERGY WITH LOWER GHG EMISSIONS (MESO LEVEL ANALYSIS)
At the meso level, the project explored the impact of time discounting and risk preferences, and the impact of policies affecting those factors on technology diffusion and energy demand in the residential sector in Europe up to 2030. In order to derive results, which reflect real world observations, the modelling procedure heavily depends on the calibration of parameters. In previous modelling, this was done based on expert guesses and the interpretation of data provided by literature in previous projects. BRISKEE, however, is using data from the BRISKEE survey. In a so-called New Actor-related Policies scenario additional economic energy saving potentials are realised. This scenario integrates findings from the micro-level analysis and assumes that policy measures are applied that affect the discount rates and decision behaviour of individual households.
Figure: Comparison of final energy for the EU residential sector (sum of buildings and appliances) in the BRISKEE scenarios. The intensified scenario assumes intensified but the same measures as in the current scenario. The Actor-related scenario takes BRISKEE findings into account.
- BRISKEE’s New Actor-Related Scenario NAMS take specific factors impacting on the implicit discount rates into account. This leads to the realization of additional economic energy saving potentials. This scenario assumes that policy measures are applied that affect the discount rates and decision behaviour of low-income households.
- Compared to the Intensified Measures Scenario IMS (which assumes that existing measures are intensified but no actor-specific measures are applied), this presents a further improvement both with respect to energy efficiency and the penetration of renewable options in the building sector.
- In combination, the difference between the two scenarios is largest when expressed in avoided CO2
- Ecodesign measures are effective – the difference is smaller for appliances covered by ecodesign measures than for buildings (which have no strict and universal energy performance limits).
- Multiple-benefits are important: Policies that underline improved comfort after a building upgrade can be a strong driver for some consumers.
- On top of intensified energy savings policy measures, lowering household-specific barriers to invest into renewable energy technologies can significantly increase the share of renewable energy in the building stock. The simulations indicate that lowering the discounts rates of low income households would support the uptake of those technologies.
- The results also suggest that additional monetary policy measures like subsidies can further reduce final energy demand and stimulate investments in energy efficiency significantly. However, this would have to be carried out with care: a programme subsidizing the purchase of very efficient white goods appliances for low-income households in all EU member states would only lead to minor savings in the projected energy demand.
- The technical performance of the product or installation is crucial. Besides light bulbs, participants rated performance criteria as the most important criteria in almost all countries. However, if the technologies are not able to fulfill the expectations of investors the technologies might run into the risk of being generally perceived as unreliable.
- Environmental criteria play a significant role in the decision process. Thus, by addressing the environmental benefits of energy efficiency technologies, the share of the population with a high(er) environmental identity can be influenced.