The impact on energy demand and the energy system

The Meso level in BRISKEE refers to the energy-demand/energy-system level. At the energy-demand level the aim of the project was to implement the findings from the micro-level regarding consumer-decision-making in energy demand models and to provide European energy demand scenarios until 2030. These scenarios take the great variety of consumers, countries and policies into account.

Energy demand models are used widely in energy efficiency policy decision-making. Projecting long-term energy demand is an essential component in designing policies to increase energy efficiency. In order to be a useful tool, energy demand models have to provide the possibility of analyzing the impact of energy efficiency strategies and policy measures.

One of the main aims of energy efficiency policy is to reduce the barriers to the adoption of energy efficient technologies and services. Currently, a so-called energy efficiency gap is observed between the actual uptake of energy efficiency innovations and the economically optimal level (both at the individual and societal level). A variety of market imperfections and other barriers that prevent the uptake of energy efficiency innovations have been discussed and include information asymmetries, split incentives, lack of interaction between user and producer, lack of awareness, lack of upfront capital. In order to effectively support a transformation of the market, it is essential to design policies that address these barriers.

At the meso level, the project explored the impact of time discounting and risk preferences, and the impact of policies affecting those factors on technology diffusion and energy demand in the residential sector in Europe up to 2030.

In order to derive results, which reflect real world observations, the modelling procedure heavily depends on the calibration of parameters. In previous modelling, this was done based on expert guesses and the interpretation of data provided by literature in previous projects. BRISKEE, however, is using data from the BRISKEE survey. In a so-called New Actor-related Policies scenarioadditional economic energy saving potentials are realised. This scenario integrates findings from the micro-level analysis and assumes that policy measures are applied that affect the discount rates and decision behaviour of individual households.

The figure [ADD] depicts the final energy demand for the residential sector in the BRISKEE scenarios as the sum of energy demand for buildings and appliances. Compared to the current policy scenario, the energy demand in 2030 in the intensified and actor-related measures scenario decreases to 2690 TWh (-6 %) and 2642 TWh (-8 %), respectively. Some of the difference in impacts (between a scenario with and without micro-level results) arises after 2030.