Macro-level policy outcomes in summary
- The main recommendations from this analysis is that macro-economic impacts need to be carefully investigated in their dynamic dimension between short term and longer term impacts and structural shifts. It is a policy decision and societal debate how these dynamic impacts can be made acceptable in view of long-term benefits. This could imply "exnovation" strategies for actors who will be strongly disadvantaged by the structural changes.
- At the macro-level structural shifts are at first observable which first lead to relatively modest increases in the impacts when moving on to the New Actor-related Measure Scenario.
- While the energy demand would be significantly lower, the macro-economic effects are slightly positive up to 2030. More positive macro-economic effects would be realised after 2030. It is thus important to look at the long-term dynamic impacts that would arise after investments are paid off. The positive effects of energy costs reductions cannot fully be accounted for within the time framework chosen (i.e. up to 2030), because they are lagging behind the investments.
- The BRISKEE modelling shows that energy efficiency investments have positive impacts on GDP and employment even in conservative (or “classic”) scenarios.
- The results are influenced by our assumption that crowding out of private consumption is prevailing in the compensation of positive impulses exceeding negative ones. This is a rather cautious, neoclassical assumption. If a more Keynesian situation were assumed, in which underutilized capacity and idle capital can accommodate additional investments, the assumption of a strong crowding out of consumption by investment would not hold anymore. Under such assumptions, the additional investments lead to increase in a final demand impulse, which leads via multiplier effects to a higher increase in employment and GDP than is depicted in our model run.
Further in-depth reading from the library
- Summary report of the results of WP4 (macro-economic modelling) see report.
- Behavioural response to investment risks in energy efficiency - Working paper on macroeconomic modelling. See report