FROM EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE TO DEEPER INSIGHTS
BRISKEE analysed European household investment behaviour through a large survey of 15,000 households in eight EU countries, providing empirical evidence of the factors underlying the implicit discount rates and their relation with household adoption of energy-efficient technologies, allowing for differences across households, technologies and countries. Accounting for these factors, BRISKEE models the diffusion of energy efficient technology and energy demand in the EU residential sector until 2030, and the macro-level impacts of changes in microeconomic decision-making and energy efficiency policy. The follow-up project CHEETAH covers the same countries, but with different technologies and with a different approach. Thus, the results are linked but the approaches are complementary.
BRISKEE represents cutting-edge agent-based modelling on EU residential efficiency investments. Some conclusions:
- The project has shown, empirically the relevance of factors underlying the Implicit Discount Rates (IDRs), and how they vary by household characteristics.
- Better understanding the factors underling the IDRs can make policies more effective and speed up technology adoption, and thus lower the IDR in modelling and scenarios.
- Energy demand modelling using IDRs based on detailed (and more realistic) understanding of investment behaviour result in lower projected energy demand for the EU than current 2030 scenarios.
- Macro-economic effects are modest but slightly positive up to 2030. More positive macro-economic effects would be realised after 2030.
- The BRISKEE modelling shows that energy efficiency investments have positive impacts on GDP and employment even in conservative (or “classic”) scenarios.