BRISKEE project reports
Objective and approach
This report is submitted as Deliverable 3.4 in the BRISKEE project and aims at summarizing the methodological, results and policy recommendations derived from the meso-level modelling approach conducted in work package 3.
The BRISKEE project has the objectives of providing evidence-based input to energy efficiency policy-making by investigating the role of household decision-making on three levels:
1) On the micro level, the project provides empirical evidence on the factors that influence investment decisions for energy efficiency technologies in households, in particular focusing on the role of household preferences for time discounting and risk, accounting for possible differences by technologies, household types, and countries.
2) On the meso level, the project explores the impact of time discounting and risk preferences, and of policies affecting those factors on technology diffusion and energy demand in the residential sector in Europe up to 2030. The project uses inputs from the micro-level analysis in order to improve the representation of investment decisions in energy demand modelling tools.
3) On the macro level, BRISKEE explores the long-term macroeconomic impacts of changes in micro-economic decision-making and of energy efficiency policy on employment, GDP and exports in the EU up to 2030. This report focuses on findings derived from 2) meso-level modelling which is mainly based on modelling final energy demand for heating and cooling as well as appliances in the European residential sector. Two bottom-up models (Invert/EE-Lab and Forecast) have been applied to model energy demand and supply developments for different policy scenarios and assumptions on the behavior of building occupants. The main results discussed in this report are:
i. Development of final energy demand for space heating, hot water, space cooling and for appliances in the residential sector until 2030 in EU28 member states including the use of final energy carriers
ii. Costs related to space heating, hot water, space cooling and appliances including investment, operational and energy costs
iii. Estimation of the deployment of efficiency measures including investments into thermal refurbishment, efficient heating systems and efficiency improvements of appliances
iv. Quantification of the potential impact of different discount rates attributed to investing agents (e.g. home owners) on the final energy demand and deployment of energy carriers
v. Quantification of the impact of intensified policy measures for three scenarios with a focus on the effect of policy measures that would reduce discount rates and investment barriers.
The report is structured as follows. Section 2 gives a brief overview of the findings of WP2 (details in Deliverable 2.2), their relation to model inputs in WP3 and a general discussion on the impact of interests rates on the models used in WP3. Section 3 provides an introduction on the modelling approach and scenario definition within WP3 (details in D 3.1). In section 4 we describe the modelling results for the development of energy demand and supply in buildings and appliances for EU 28 until the year 2030 under current policy assumptions. Those results serve as a basis to evaluate the potential impact of intensified additional energy efficiency measures and in particular the potential of policies addressing user behavior to reduce energy demand and fossil fuel use in the European Union which is discussed in section 5. Section 6 concludes this report with a summary of the findings from the quantitative scenarios calculated in WP 3.
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